Issue 2026-042

[Draft] Hydromet Flood Bulletin

Draft prepared Wednesday, October 14, 2026 02:30

Bulletin valid from Oct 15, 2026 02:30 to Oct 19, 2026 02:30 EAT

Ethiopia

Rwanda

South Sudan

Sudan

Uganda

1. Rainfall Forecast

Rainfall Forecast Summary

Sudan system-generated

No significant rainfall is forecast: every admin area stays at normal level for this window — the highest 5-day total across 188 admin areas is 20.4 mm.

South Sudan system-generated

Heaviest rainfall is forecast at moderate level over Nagero, Tambura. Expect saturated ground and rapid runoff in these areas, with the heaviest totals concentrated where the forecast reaches its highest band.

Uganda system-generated

Heaviest rainfall is forecast at severe level over Kamwenge, Kanungu, Kasese. Expect saturated ground and rapid runoff in these areas, with the heaviest totals concentrated where the forecast reaches its highest band.

Ethiopia system-generated

Heaviest rainfall is forecast at severe level over Afder, Keffa. Expect saturated ground and rapid runoff in these areas, with the heaviest totals concentrated where the forecast reaches its highest band.

Rwanda system-generated

Heaviest rainfall is forecast at extreme level over Nyabihu, Rubavu, Rutsiro. Expect saturated ground and rapid runoff in these areas, with the heaviest totals concentrated where the forecast reaches its highest band.

2. Riverine Flood Forecast

Riverine Flood Forecast Summary

Sudan system-generated

Riverine flood risk reaches extreme level in Abu Houjar, Abu Jabra, Algolid, Alsalam, Ed El Fursan, El Dwaeem. Expect elevated river and surface-water flow, affecting riverine settlements, crossing points and irrigation intakes along the reaches concerned.

South Sudan system-generated

Riverine flood risk reaches extreme level in Awerial, Fangak, Lafon, Magwi, Malakal, Manyo. Expect elevated river and surface-water flow, affecting riverine settlements, crossing points and irrigation intakes along the reaches concerned.

Uganda system-generated

Riverine flood risk reaches extreme level in Adjumani, Gulu, Katakwi, Kitgum, Kumi, Moyo. Expect elevated river and surface-water flow, affecting riverine settlements, crossing points and irrigation intakes along the reaches concerned.

Ethiopia system-generated

Riverine flood risk reaches extreme level in Afar Zone 3, Afder, Agnuak, Arsi, Bale, Borena. Expect elevated river and surface-water flow, affecting riverine settlements, crossing points and irrigation intakes along the reaches concerned.

Rwanda system-generated

Riverine flood risk reaches moderate level in Nyagatare. Expect elevated river and surface-water flow, affecting riverine settlements, crossing points and irrigation intakes along the reaches concerned.

3. Combined Flood Forecast

Combined Flood Forecast Summary

Taking rainfall and river response together, combined severity reaches extreme level over Ethiopia (Afar Zone 3, Afder, Agnuak, Arsi); South Sudan (Awerial, Fangak, Lafon, Magwi); Sudan (Abu Houjar, Abu Jabra, Algolid, Alsalam); Uganda (Adjumani, Gulu, Katakwi, Kitgum). These are the areas where both signals agree, so they carry the strongest case for early action this window: disaster management actors should treat them as the priority for pre-positioning and community messaging, while agriculture, food-security and water actors should assume disruption to field access, market movement and surface-water supply.

Severity levels: what each one means and what to do
Severity level	L1 Normal	L2 Moderate	L3 Severe	L4 Extreme
What it means	No flood impact expected. River and rainfall levels are within their normal range.	Localised flooding possible in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Disruption likely to be short-lived.	Flooding likely to affect settlements, farmland and crossing points. Damage to property and access is expected.	Severe and widespread flooding. Danger to life, livestock and infrastructure; displacement is likely.
What to do	No action required. Continue routine monitoring.	Stay informed and follow updates from your national meteorological and hydrological service.	Pre-position resources, review early action triggers and warn communities in exposed areas.	Activate response plans, move people and livestock from flood-prone areas and follow instructions from national authorities.

WHCA partners & collaborators

WMO

UNDRR

Netherlands Red Cross

IFRC

SMHI

CIMA Foundation

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands

This Regional Hydro-Meteorological Bulletin is produced by the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). Any recommended actions or response measures must be validated and coordinated through the designated national focal points of the relevant meteorological and hydrological authorities in each country.