Issue 2026-032

[Draft] WHCA Flood Bulletin

Issued Monday, August 3, 2026 · Window Aug 3 → Aug 7, 2026 · 435 admin-3 polygons

1. Highlights

Level 3+ combined severity is forecast in: Ethiopia, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda. National Disaster Management Authorities in these countries are advised to monitor closely.

2. Three-Map Outlook (5-day)

Rainfall

Surface Flood Risk

Combined

Rainfall Outlook

Across the 411 polygons with rainfall data, the 5-day spatial-mean rainfall averages 12.3 mm (max 90.8 mm). Highest forecast totals are concentrated in: Sudan (Dimsu, 91 mm), Sudan (Katayla, 73 mm), Sudan (Tullus, 72 mm), Sudan (El Ferdous, 69 mm), Sudan (Abu Karinka, 64 mm).

L2 Moderate Sudan (16)

L1 Normal Ethiopia (79) · Rwanda (28) · South Sudan (78) · Sudan (153) · Uganda (57)

Surface Flood Risk Outlook

149 of the 435 WHCA admin-2 polygons show at least one model point exceeding its p90 percentile threshold during the 5-day window. Most affected countries by polygon-count: Sudan (62 polygons), Ethiopia (46 polygons), South Sudan (27 polygons), Uganda (13 polygons), Rwanda (1 polygons).

L4 Extreme Ethiopia: Afar Zone 1, Afar Zone 2, Afar Zone 3, Afar Zone 4, Agew Awi, Agnuak, Arsi, Bale, Debub Wollo, Doolo, Gurage, Ilubabor, Kemashi, Metekel, M…; South Sudan: Abiemnhom, Awerial, Ayod, Baliet, Fangak, Juba, Lafon, Maban, Magwi, Malakal, Manyo, Mundri West, Nyirol, Panyikang, Pariang, Pibor, Renk, …; Sudan: Abu Hamad, Abu Houjar, Abu Jabra, Al Buhyra, Alborgag, Algolid, Alsalam, Berber, Dalgo, Dongola, Ed El Fursan, El Dwaeem, El Jabaleen, El M…; Uganda: Adjumani, Apac, Arua, Gulu, Katakwi, Kitgum, Kumi, Masindi, Moyo, Nakapiripirit, Nebbi

L3 Severe Ethiopia: Afar Zone 5, Afder, Dawro, Debub Gondar, Guji, Jarar, Jimma, Liben, Mirab Hararghe, Mirab Shewa, Oromia, Siti; Rwanda: Nyagatare; South Sudan: Jur River, Melut; Sudan: Al Fashaga, Al Gonnob & Al Oleb, Al Mafaza, Aldaba, Atbra, Damazin, El Dindir, El Kamleen, Haiya, Jabiet Al Maadin, Katayla, Khartoum, …; Uganda: Kiboga

L2 Moderate Ethiopia (11) · South Sudan (5) · Sudan (12) · Uganda (1)

L1 Normal Ethiopia (23) · Rwanda (23) · South Sudan (49) · Sudan (69) · Uganda (42)

Combined Severity by Country

L4 Extreme Ethiopia: Afar Zone 1, Afar Zone 2, Afar Zone 3, Afar Zone 4, Agew Awi, Agnuak, Arsi, Bale, Debub Wollo, Doolo, Gurage, Ilubabor,…; South Sudan: Abiemnhom, Awerial, Ayod, Baliet, Fangak, Juba, Lafon, Maban, Magwi, Malakal, Manyo, Mundri West, Nyirol, Panyikang, Pa…; Sudan: Abu Hamad, Abu Houjar, Abu Jabra, Al Buhyra, Alborgag, Algolid, Alsalam, Berber, Dalgo, Dongola, Ed El Fursan, El Dwaee…; Uganda: Adjumani, Apac, Arua, Gulu, Katakwi, Kitgum, Kumi, Masindi, Moyo, Nakapiripirit, Nebbi

L2 Moderate Ethiopia: Borena, Debubawi, Fafan, Gamo Gofa, Kelem Wellega, Korahe, Mehakelegnaw, Misraq Gojjam, Misraq Harerge, North Shewa, Se…; South Sudan: Kapoeta East, Luakpiny/Nasir, Maiwut, Raga, Rubkona; Sudan: Abu Karinka, Al Butana, Alnihood, Aludya, Aroma, Assalaya, Babanosa, Bahr El Arab, Buram, Delenj, Dimsu, Ed Daein, El F…; Uganda: Pallisa

L1 Normal Ethiopia: Addis Abeba, Alaba, Alle, Amaro, Argoba, Asosa, Bahir Dar Special Zone, Basketo, Bench Maji, Burji, Debub Mirab Shewa, …; Rwanda: Bugesera, Burera, Gakenke, Gasabo, Gatsibo, Gicumbi, Gisagara, Huye, Kamonyi, Karongi, Kayonza, Kicukiro, Kirehe, Muhan…; South Sudan: Abyei, Akobo, Aweil Centre, Aweil East, Aweil North, Aweil South, Aweil West, Bor South, Budi, Canal/Pigi, Cueibet, Duk…; Sudan: Abu Jibeiha, Abu Kershola, Abu Zabad, Abyei, Adila, Agig, Ailliet, Al Abbasia, Al Buram, Al Galabat Eastern, Al Gedaref…; Uganda: Bugiri, Bundibugyo, Bushenyi, Busia, Hoima, Iganga, Jinja, Kabale, Kabarole, Kaberamaido, Kampala, Kamuli, Kamwenge, Ka…

Thresholds: rainfall L1 ≤ 50.0 mm, L2 ≤ 100.0 mm, L3 ≤ 150.0 mm, L4 above. Edit in Wagtail admin → Settings → Bulletin Thresholds. Window override: ?start=YYYY-MM-DD.

Member states covered by this bulletin

Ethiopia
Rwanda
South Sudan
Sudan
Uganda

Partners & collaborators

WMO

UNDRR

African Union