Issue 2026-030
[Draft] WHCA Flood Bulletin
Issued Monday, July 20, 2026 ·
Window Jul 20 → Jul 24, 2026 ·
435 admin-3 polygons
1. Highlights
Level 3+ combined severity is forecast in: Ethiopia, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda. National Disaster Management Authorities in these countries are advised to monitor closely.
2. Three-Map Outlook (5-day)
Rainfall
Surface Flood Risk
Combined
Rainfall Outlook
Across the 406 polygons with rainfall data, the 5-day spatial-mean rainfall averages 12.2 mm (max 63.1 mm). Highest forecast totals are concentrated in: Sudan (Marshang, 63 mm), Sudan (Alwehda, 49 mm), Sudan (Buram, 49 mm), Sudan (Dimsu, 45 mm), Sudan (Sharq Jabel Marra, 40 mm).
L2 Moderate
Sudan (1)
L1 Normal
Ethiopia (77) · Rwanda (30) · South Sudan (79) · Sudan (161) · Uganda (58)
Surface Flood Risk Outlook
87 of the 435 WHCA admin-2 polygons show at least one model point exceeding its p90 percentile threshold during the 5-day window. Most affected countries by polygon-count: Ethiopia (29 polygons), Sudan (26 polygons), South Sudan (22 polygons), Uganda (9 polygons), Rwanda (1 polygons).
L4 Extreme
Ethiopia: Afar Zone 3, Agnuak, Arsi, Bale, Doolo, Guji, Ilubabor, Kemashi, Mi'irabawi, Mirab Gojjam, Mirab Welega, Misraq Shewa, North Shewa, Se…; South Sudan: Awerial, Baliet, Fangak, Lafon, Maban, Magwi, Malakal, Manyo, Mundri West, Pariang, Pibor, Renk, Terekeka, Tonj North, Yei; Sudan: Abu Houjar, Abu Jabra, Algolid, Alsalam, Ed El Fursan, El Dwaeem, El Qeteena, El Salam, Jebrt El Sheekh, Klaimendo, Kylac, Qibeish, Rabak, …; Uganda: Adjumani, Gulu, Katakwi, Kitgum, Kumi, Moyo, Nakapiripirit, Nebbi
L3 Severe
Ethiopia: Afder, Debub Gondar, Jarar, Liben, Mirab Arsi, Mirab Hararghe, Mirab Shewa, Shabelle; Rwanda: Nyagatare; South Sudan: Ayod, Nyirol; Sudan: Damazin, El Kamleen, Katayla, Khartoum, Tendalti; Uganda: Kiboga
L2 Moderate
Ethiopia (6) · South Sudan (5) · Sudan (4)
L1 Normal
Ethiopia (40) · Rwanda (23) · South Sudan (54) · Sudan (105) · Uganda (46)
Combined Severity by Country
L4 Extreme
Ethiopia: Afar Zone 3, Agnuak, Arsi, Bale, Doolo, Guji, Ilubabor, Kemashi, Mi'irabawi, Mirab Gojjam, Mirab Welega, Misraq Sh…; South Sudan: Awerial, Baliet, Fangak, Lafon, Maban, Magwi, Malakal, Manyo, Mundri West, Pariang, Pibor, Renk, Terekeka, Tonj North, …; Sudan: Abu Houjar, Abu Jabra, Algolid, Alsalam, Ed El Fursan, El Dwaeem, El Qeteena, El Salam, Jebrt El Sheekh, Klaimendo, Kyl…; Uganda: Adjumani, Gulu, Katakwi, Kitgum, Kumi, Moyo, Nakapiripirit, Nebbi
L3 Severe
Ethiopia: Afder, Debub Gondar, Jarar, Liben, Mirab Arsi, Mirab Hararghe, Mirab Shewa, Shabelle; Rwanda: Nyagatare; South Sudan: Ayod, Nyirol; Sudan: Damazin, El Kamleen, Katayla, Khartoum, Tendalti; Uganda: Kiboga
L2 Moderate
Ethiopia: Borena, Fafan, Kelem Wellega, Korahe, Semen Wello, Siti; South Sudan: Jur River, Luakpiny/Nasir, Maiwut, Melut, Raga; Sudan: Agig, Babanosa, El Fasher, Geissan, Marshang
L1 Normal
Ethiopia: Addis Abeba, Afar Zone 1, Afar Zone 2, Afar Zone 4, Afar Zone 5, Agew Awi, Alaba, Alle, Amaro, Argoba, Asosa, Bahir Dar…; Rwanda: Bugesera, Burera, Gakenke, Gasabo, Gatsibo, Gicumbi, Gisagara, Huye, Kamonyi, Karongi, Kayonza, Kicukiro, Kirehe, Muhan…; South Sudan: Abiemnhom, Abyei, Akobo, Aweil Centre, Aweil East, Aweil North, Aweil South, Aweil West, Bor South, Budi, Canal/Pigi, C…; Sudan: Abu Hamad, Abu Jibeiha, Abu Karinka, Abu Kershola, Abu Zabad, Abyei, Adila, Ailliet, Al Abbasia, Al Buhyra, Al Buram, A…; Uganda: Apac, Arua, Bugiri, Bundibugyo, Bushenyi, Busia, Hoima, Iganga, Jinja, Kabale, Kabarole, Kaberamaido, Kalangala, Kampal…
Thresholds:
rainfall L1 ≤ 50.0 mm,
L2 ≤ 100.0 mm,
L3 ≤ 150.0 mm,
L4 above.
Edit in Wagtail admin → Settings → Bulletin Thresholds.
Window override:
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Member states covered by this bulletin
- Ethiopia
- Rwanda
- South Sudan
- Sudan
- Uganda
Partners & collaborators
WMO
UNDRR
African Union