Issue 2026-033
[Draft] WHCA Flood Bulletin
Issued Monday, August 10, 2026 ·
Window Aug 10 → Aug 14, 2026 ·
435 admin-3 polygons
1. Highlights
Level 3+ combined severity is forecast in: Ethiopia, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda. National Disaster Management Authorities in these countries are advised to monitor closely.
2. Three-Map Outlook (5-day)
Rainfall
Surface Flood Risk
Combined
Rainfall Outlook
Across the 413 polygons with rainfall data, the 5-day spatial-mean rainfall averages 12.4 mm (max 71.8 mm). Highest forecast totals are concentrated in: Ethiopia (Addis Abeba, 72 mm), Ethiopia (Debub Mirab Shewa, 66 mm), Ethiopia (Silti, 64 mm), Ethiopia (Kembata Tembaro, 59 mm), Ethiopia (Gurage, 56 mm).
L2 Moderate
Ethiopia (7) · Sudan (2)
L1 Normal
Ethiopia (72) · Rwanda (21) · South Sudan (79) · Sudan (174) · Uganda (58)
Surface Flood Risk Outlook
140 of the 435 WHCA admin-2 polygons show at least one model point exceeding its p90 percentile threshold during the 5-day window. Most affected countries by polygon-count: Sudan (58 polygons), Ethiopia (43 polygons), South Sudan (22 polygons), Uganda (16 polygons), Rwanda (1 polygons).
L4 Extreme
Ethiopia: Afar Zone 1, Afar Zone 2, Afar Zone 3, Afar Zone 4, Agnuak, Arsi, Bale, Debub Wollo, Gurage, Ilubabor, Kemashi, Metekel, Mi'irabawi, M…; South Sudan: Awerial, Fangak, Juba, Lafon, Magwi, Malakal, Manyo, Mundri West, Panyikang, Pariang, Pibor, Renk, Terekeka, Tonj North, Yei; Sudan: Abu Hamad, Abu Houjar, Abu Jabra, Al Buhyra, Alborgag, Aldaba, Algolid, Alsalam, Berber, Dalgo, Dongola, Ed El Fursan, El Dwaeem, El Jabale…; Uganda: Adjumani, Apac, Arua, Gulu, Katakwi, Kitgum, Kumi, Masindi, Mbarara, Moyo, Nakapiripirit, Nebbi
L3 Severe
Ethiopia: Afar Zone 5, Afder, Agew Awi, Bench Maji, Debub Gondar, Debub Omo, Gamo Gofa, Guji, Jarar, Jimma, Keffa, Oromia, Sidama, Siti, Wolayita; Rwanda: Nyagatare; South Sudan: Baliet, Kapoeta East, Nyirol; Sudan: Al Gonnob & Al Oleb, Al Mafaza, Atbra, Damazin, El Dindir, El Kamleen, Haiya, Jabiet Al Maadin, Katayla, Khartoum, Nahr Atbara, Tendalt…; Uganda: Kiboga
L2 Moderate
Ethiopia (7) · South Sudan (4) · Sudan (9) · Uganda (3)
L1 Normal
Ethiopia (26) · Rwanda (23) · South Sudan (54) · Sudan (73) · Uganda (39)
Combined Severity by Country
L4 Extreme
Ethiopia: Afar Zone 1, Afar Zone 2, Afar Zone 3, Afar Zone 4, Agnuak, Arsi, Bale, Debub Wollo, Gurage, Ilubabor, Kemashi, Metekel…; South Sudan: Awerial, Fangak, Juba, Lafon, Magwi, Malakal, Manyo, Mundri West, Panyikang, Pariang, Pibor, Renk, Terekeka, Tonj North…; Sudan: Abu Hamad, Abu Houjar, Abu Jabra, Al Buhyra, Alborgag, Aldaba, Algolid, Alsalam, Berber, Dalgo, Dongola, Ed El Fursan, …; Uganda: Adjumani, Apac, Arua, Gulu, Katakwi, Kitgum, Kumi, Masindi, Mbarara, Moyo, Nakapiripirit, Nebbi
L3 Severe
Ethiopia: Afar Zone 5, Afder, Agew Awi, Bench Maji, Debub Gondar, Debub Omo, Gamo Gofa, Guji, Jarar, Jimma, Keffa, Oromia, Sidama…; Rwanda: Nyagatare; South Sudan: Baliet, Kapoeta East, Nyirol; Sudan: Al Gonnob & Al Oleb, Al Mafaza, Atbra, Damazin, El Dindir, El Kamleen, Haiya, Jabiet Al Maadin, Katayla, Khartoum, …; Uganda: Kiboga
L2 Moderate
Ethiopia: Addis Abeba, Dawro, Debub Mirab Shewa, Debubawi, Fafan, Hadiya, Kembata Tembaro, Liben, Mehakelegnaw, Semien Mi'ir…; South Sudan: Abiemnhom, Ayod, Jur River, Melut; Sudan: Al Butana, Al Fashaga, Alnihood, Aroma, Babanosa, El Fao, El Fasher, Foro Baranga, Geissan, Habila, Halaib; Uganda: Lake Victoria, Mukono, Pallisa
L1 Normal
Ethiopia: Alaba, Alle, Amaro, Argoba, Asosa, Bahir Dar Special Zone, Basketo, Borena, Burji, Derashe, Dire Dawa, Doolo, Gedeo, Ha…; Rwanda: Bugesera, Burera, Gakenke, Gasabo, Gatsibo, Gicumbi, Gisagara, Kamonyi, Karongi, Kayonza, Kicukiro, Kirehe, Muhanga, Mu…; South Sudan: Abyei, Akobo, Aweil Centre, Aweil East, Aweil North, Aweil South, Aweil West, Bor South, Budi, Canal/Pigi, Cueibet, Duk…; Sudan: Abu Jibeiha, Abu Karinka, Abu Kershola, Abu Zabad, Abyei, Adila, Agig, Ailliet, Al Abbasia, Al Buram, Al Galabat Easter…; Uganda: Bugiri, Bundibugyo, Bushenyi, Busia, Hoima, Iganga, Jinja, Kabale, Kabarole, Kaberamaido, Kalangala, Kampala, Kamuli, K…
Thresholds:
rainfall L1 ≤ 50.0 mm,
L2 ≤ 100.0 mm,
L3 ≤ 150.0 mm,
L4 above.
Edit in Wagtail admin → Settings → Bulletin Thresholds.
Window override:
?start=YYYY-MM-DD.
Member states covered by this bulletin
- Ethiopia
- Rwanda
- South Sudan
- Sudan
- Uganda
Partners & collaborators
WMO
UNDRR
African Union