Issue 2026-023
[Draft] WHCA Flood Bulletin
Issued Monday, June 1, 2026 · Window Jun 1 → Jun 5, 2026 · 435 admin-3 polygons
← All bulletins This bulletin is system-generated. Hydromet review pending before sign-off.
1. Highlights
Level 3+ combined severity is forecast in: Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda. National Disaster Management Authorities in these countries are advised to monitor closely.
{# Map visibility — strict hazard-only for editors: hydro → discharge map only met → rainfall map only anonymous / admin reviewer / published → all three. Grid collapses to a single full-width column for editors. #}
2. Three-Map Outlook (5-day)

Rainfall

Rainfall map

Discharge

Discharge map

Combined

Combined map
Rainfall Outlook
Across the 391 polygons with rainfall data, the 5-day spatial-mean rainfall averages 21.2 mm (max 110.6 mm). Highest forecast totals are concentrated in: South Sudan (Guit, 111 mm), Ethiopia (Yem, 107 mm), Ethiopia (Keffa, 106 mm), South Sudan (Rubkona, 98 mm), South Sudan (Twic, 98 mm). Several polygons exceed the 100 mm threshold, warranting Level 3 (High) classification.
L3 High Ethiopia: Keffa, Yem; South Sudan: Guit
L2 Medium Ethiopia (9) · South Sudan (25) · Sudan (2) · Uganda (2)
L1 Low Ethiopia (65) · Rwanda (30) · South Sudan (53) · Sudan (146) · Uganda (56)
Discharge Outlook
2041 multimodal forecast points fall within the 435 WHCA admin-3 polygons; 76 polygons show at least one point exceeding its p90 percentile threshold. Most affected countries by polygon-count: Sudan (30 polygons), Ethiopia (22 polygons), South Sudan (13 polygons), Uganda (11 polygons).
L4 Extreme Ethiopia: Afder, Arsi, Bale, Borena, Jarar, Kemashi, Korahe, Mirab Arsi, Mirab Gojjam, Mirab Hararghe, Misraq Harerge, North Shewa, Shabelle, Sidama,…; South Sudan: Fangak, Lafon, Magwi, Malakal, Manyo, Mundri West, Pariang, Pibor, Renk, Tonj North, Yei; Sudan: Abu Houjar, Abu Jabra, Algolid, Alsalam, Ed El Fursan, El Dwaeem, El Qeteena, El Salam, Jebrt El Sheekh, Klaimendo, Kylac, Rabak, Sodari, U…; Uganda: Adjumani, Gulu, Katakwi, Kayunga, Kitgum, Kumi, Nebbi
L3 High Ethiopia: Afar Zone 3, Doolo, Mi'irabawi, Nogob, Siti; South Sudan: Melut; Sudan: Aldaba, Damazin, El Matama, Eldamar, Nahr Atbara, Tendalti; Uganda: Kamuli, Kiboga
L2 Medium Ethiopia (2) · South Sudan (1) · Sudan (8) · Uganda (2)
L1 Low Ethiopia (42) · Rwanda (12) · South Sudan (46) · Sudan (68) · Uganda (22)
Combined Severity by Country
L4 Extreme Ethiopia: Afder, Arsi, Bale, Borena, Jarar, Kemashi, Korahe, Mirab Arsi, Mirab Gojjam, Mirab Hararghe, Misraq Harerge, North Shew…; South Sudan: Fangak, Lafon, Magwi, Malakal, Manyo, Mundri West, Pariang, Pibor, Renk, Tonj North, Yei; Sudan: Abu Houjar, Abu Jabra, Algolid, Alsalam, Ed El Fursan, El Dwaeem, El Qeteena, El Salam, Jebrt El Sheekh, Klaimendo, Kyl…; Uganda: Adjumani, Gulu, Katakwi, Kayunga, Kitgum, Kumi, Nebbi
L3 High Ethiopia: Afar Zone 3, Doolo, Keffa, Mi'irabawi, Nogob, Siti, Yem; South Sudan: Guit, Melut; Sudan: Aldaba, Damazin, El Matama, Eldamar, Nahr Atbara, Tendalti; Uganda: Kamuli, Kiboga
L2 Medium Ethiopia: Dawro, Debub Gondar, Gurage, Hadiya, Ilubabor, Jimma, Kembata Tembaro, Konta, Liben, Sheka, Wolayita; South Sudan: Abiemnhom, Aweil Centre, Aweil East, Aweil South, Aweil West, Baliet, Canal/Pigi, Ezo, Gogrial East, Gogrial West, Ibba…; Sudan: Abyei, Al Buhyra, Al Gonnob & Al Oleb, Alborgag, Dalgo, Dongola, Haiya, Jabiet Al Maadin, Marawai, Um Dorin; Uganda: Apac, Lake Albert, Lake Victoria, Sembabule
L1 Low Ethiopia: Addis Abeba, Afar Zone 1, Afar Zone 2, Afar Zone 4, Afar Zone 5, Agew Awi, Agnuak, Alaba, Alle, Amaro, Argoba, Asosa, B…; Rwanda: Bugesera, Burera, Gakenke, Gasabo, Gatsibo, Gicumbi, Gisagara, Huye, Kamonyi, Karongi, Kayonza, Kicukiro, Kirehe, Muhan…; South Sudan: Abyei, Akobo, Aweil North, Awerial, Ayod, Bor South, Budi, Cueibet, Duk, Ikotos, Kajo-keji, Kapoeta East, Kapoeta North…; Sudan: Abu Hamad, Abu Jibeiha, Abu Karinka, Abu Kershola, Abu Zabad, Adila, Agig, Ailliet, Al Abbasia, Al Buram, Al Butana, Al…; Uganda: Arua, Bugiri, Bundibugyo, Bushenyi, Busia, Hoima, Iganga, Jinja, Kabale, Kabarole, Kaberamaido, Kalangala, Kampala, Kam…
Thresholds: rainfall L1 ≤ 50.0 mm, L2 ≤ 100.0 mm, L3 ≤ 150.0 mm, L4 above. Edit in Wagtail admin → Settings → Bulletin Thresholds. Window override: ?start=YYYY-MM-DD.

Member states covered by this bulletin

  • Ethiopia
  • Rwanda
  • South Sudan
  • Sudan
  • Uganda
Produced by ICPAC.