Issue 2026-022
[Draft] WHCA Flood Bulletin
Issued Monday, May 25, 2026 · Window May 25 → May 29, 2026 · 435 admin-3 polygons
← All bulletins This bulletin is system-generated. Hydromet review pending before sign-off.
1. Highlights
Level 3+ combined severity is forecast in: Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda. National Disaster Management Authorities in these countries are advised to monitor closely.
{# Map visibility — strict hazard-only for editors: hydro → discharge map only met → rainfall map only anonymous / admin reviewer / published → all three. Grid collapses to a single full-width column for editors. #}
2. Three-Map Outlook (5-day)

Rainfall

Rainfall map

Discharge

Discharge map

Combined

Combined map
Rainfall Outlook
Across the 259 polygons with rainfall data, the 5-day spatial-mean rainfall averages 19.7 mm (max 184.1 mm). Highest forecast totals are concentrated in: Ethiopia (Yem, 184 mm), Ethiopia (Jimma, 170 mm), Ethiopia (Keffa, 131 mm), Ethiopia (Hadiya, 114 mm), Ethiopia (Gurage, 101 mm). Several polygons exceed the 100 mm threshold, warranting Level 3 (High) classification.
L4 Extreme Ethiopia: Jimma, Yem
L3 High Ethiopia: Gurage, Hadiya, Keffa
L2 Medium Ethiopia (10) · South Sudan (12) · Uganda (5)
L1 Low Ethiopia (62) · Rwanda (30) · South Sudan (66) · Sudan (16) · Uganda (53)
Discharge Outlook
2041 multimodal forecast points fall within the 435 WHCA admin-3 polygons; 76 polygons show at least one point exceeding its p90 percentile threshold. Most affected countries by polygon-count: Sudan (30 polygons), Ethiopia (22 polygons), South Sudan (13 polygons), Uganda (11 polygons).
L4 Extreme Ethiopia: Afder, Arsi, Bale, Borena, Doolo, Jarar, Kemashi, Korahe, Mirab Arsi, Mirab Gojjam, Mirab Hararghe, Misraq Harerge, Nogob, North Shewa, Sha…; South Sudan: Fangak, Lafon, Magwi, Malakal, Manyo, Mundri West, Pariang, Pibor, Renk, Tonj North, Yei; Sudan: Abu Houjar, Abu Jabra, Algolid, Alsalam, Ed El Fursan, El Dwaeem, El Qeteena, El Salam, Jebrt El Sheekh, Klaimendo, Kylac, Rabak, Sodari, U…; Uganda: Adjumani, Gulu, Kamuli, Katakwi, Kayunga, Kiboga, Kitgum, Kumi, Nebbi, Sembabule
L3 High Ethiopia: Liben, Mi'irabawi, Siti; South Sudan: Melut; Sudan: Aldaba, Damazin, El Matama, Eldamar, Nahr Atbara, Tendalti; Uganda: Lake Victoria
L2 Medium Ethiopia (2) · South Sudan (1) · Sudan (8)
L1 Low Ethiopia (42) · Rwanda (12) · South Sudan (46) · Sudan (68) · Uganda (22)
Combined Severity by Country
L4 Extreme Ethiopia: Afder, Arsi, Bale, Borena, Doolo, Jarar, Jimma, Kemashi, Korahe, Mirab Arsi, Mirab Gojjam, Mirab Hararghe, Misraq Harer…; South Sudan: Fangak, Lafon, Magwi, Malakal, Manyo, Mundri West, Pariang, Pibor, Renk, Tonj North, Yei; Sudan: Abu Houjar, Abu Jabra, Algolid, Alsalam, Ed El Fursan, El Dwaeem, El Qeteena, El Salam, Jebrt El Sheekh, Klaimendo, Kyl…; Uganda: Adjumani, Gulu, Kamuli, Katakwi, Kayunga, Kiboga, Kitgum, Kumi, Nebbi, Sembabule
L3 High Ethiopia: Gurage, Hadiya, Keffa, Liben, Mi'irabawi, Siti; South Sudan: Melut; Sudan: Aldaba, Damazin, El Matama, Eldamar, Nahr Atbara, Tendalti; Uganda: Lake Victoria
L2 Medium Ethiopia: Burji, Dawro, Debub Gondar, Debub Mirab Shewa, Ilubabor, Kembata Tembaro, Konta, Mirab Shewa, Misraq Wellega, Sheka, Si…; South Sudan: Baliet, Ezo, Ibba, Kajo-keji, Leer, Maridi, Mayendit, Mundri East, Nzara, Panyijiar, Yambio; Sudan: Al Buhyra, Al Gonnob & Al Oleb, Alborgag, Dalgo, Dongola, Haiya, Jabiet Al Maadin, Marawai; Uganda: Arua, Lake Albert, Moyo, Yumbe
L1 Low Ethiopia: Addis Abeba, Afar Zone 1, Afar Zone 2, Afar Zone 3, Afar Zone 4, Afar Zone 5, Agew Awi, Agnuak, Alaba, Alle, Amaro, Arg…; Rwanda: Bugesera, Burera, Gakenke, Gasabo, Gatsibo, Gicumbi, Gisagara, Huye, Kamonyi, Karongi, Kayonza, Kicukiro, Kirehe, Muhan…; South Sudan: Abiemnhom, Abyei, Akobo, Aweil Centre, Aweil East, Aweil South, Aweil West, Awerial, Ayod, Bor South, Budi, Canal/Pigi,…; Sudan: Abu Hamad, Abu Jibeiha, Abu Zabad, Abyei, Agig, Ailliet, Al Buram, Al Butana, Al Fashaga, Al Gurisha, Al Leiri, Al Mafa…; Uganda: Apac, Bugiri, Bundibugyo, Bushenyi, Busia, Hoima, Iganga, Jinja, Kabale, Kabarole, Kaberamaido, Kalangala, Kampala, Kam…
Thresholds: rainfall L1 ≤ 50.0 mm, L2 ≤ 100.0 mm, L3 ≤ 150.0 mm, L4 above. Edit in Wagtail admin → Settings → Bulletin Thresholds. Window override: ?start=YYYY-MM-DD.

Member states covered by this bulletin

  • Ethiopia
  • Rwanda
  • South Sudan
  • Sudan
  • Uganda
Produced by ICPAC.