Issue 2026-021

[Draft] WHCA Flood Bulletin

Issued Monday, May 18, 2026 · Window May 18 → May 22, 2026 · 435 admin-3 polygons
← All bulletins This bulletin is system-generated. Hydromet review pending before sign-off.
1. Highlights
Level 3+ combined severity is forecast in: Ethiopia, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda. National Disaster Management Authorities in these countries are advised to monitor closely.
2. Three-Map Outlook (5-day)

Rainfall

Rainfall map

Discharge

Discharge map

Combined

Combined map
Rainfall Outlook
No WRF rainfall data is available for this 5-day window. Check the WRF sync job and forecast date range.
No rainfall data for this window.
Discharge Outlook
88 of the 435 WHCA admin-2 polygons show at least one model point exceeding its p90 percentile threshold during the 5-day window. Most affected countries by polygon-count: Sudan (31 polygons), Ethiopia (25 polygons), Uganda (16 polygons), South Sudan (13 polygons), Rwanda (3 polygons).
L4 Extreme Ethiopia: Afder, Arsi, Bale, Borena, Doolo, Guji, Jarar, Kemashi, Korahe, Liben, Mirab Arsi, Mirab Gojjam, Mirab Hararghe, Misraq Harerge, Nogob, Nor…; South Sudan: Fangak, Lafon, Magwi, Malakal, Manyo, Mundri West, Pariang, Pibor, Renk, Tonj North, Yei; Sudan: Abu Houjar, Abu Jabra, Algolid, Alsalam, Ed El Fursan, El Dwaeem, El Qeteena, El Salam, Jebrt El Sheekh, Klaimendo, Kylac, Rabak, Sodari, U…; Uganda: Adjumani, Gulu, Kamuli, Katakwi, Kayunga, Kiboga, Kitgum, Kumi, Lake Victoria, Nebbi, Rakai, Sembabule
L3 High Ethiopia: Afar Zone 3, Burji, Mi'irabawi, Siti; Rwanda: Kamonyi; South Sudan: Melut; Sudan: Aldaba, Damazin, El Matama, Eldamar, Nahr Atbara, Tendalti; Uganda: Iganga, Mbarara
L2 Medium Ethiopia (2) · Rwanda (2) · South Sudan (1) · Sudan (9) · Uganda (2)
L1 Low Ethiopia (41) · Rwanda (21) · South Sudan (63) · Sudan (98) · Uganda (38)
Combined Severity by Country
L4 Extreme Ethiopia: Afder, Arsi, Bale, Borena, Doolo, Guji, Jarar, Kemashi, Korahe, Liben, Mirab Arsi, Mirab Gojjam, Mirab Hararghe, Misraq…; South Sudan: Fangak, Lafon, Magwi, Malakal, Manyo, Mundri West, Pariang, Pibor, Renk, Tonj North, Yei; Sudan: Abu Houjar, Abu Jabra, Algolid, Alsalam, Ed El Fursan, El Dwaeem, El Qeteena, El Salam, Jebrt El Sheekh, Klaimendo, Kyl…; Uganda: Adjumani, Gulu, Kamuli, Katakwi, Kayunga, Kiboga, Kitgum, Kumi, Lake Victoria, Nebbi, Rakai, Sembabule
L3 High Ethiopia: Afar Zone 3, Burji, Mi'irabawi, Siti; Rwanda: Kamonyi; South Sudan: Melut; Sudan: Aldaba, Damazin, El Matama, Eldamar, Nahr Atbara, Tendalti; Uganda: Iganga, Mbarara
L2 Medium Ethiopia: Debub Gondar, Konso; Rwanda: Ngororero, Nyarugenge; South Sudan: Baliet; Sudan: Al Buhyra, Al Butana, Al Gonnob & Al Oleb, Alborgag, Dalgo, Dongola, Haiya, Jabiet Al Maadin, Marawai; Uganda: Kasese, Pallisa
L1 Low Ethiopia: Addis Abeba, Afar Zone 1, Afar Zone 2, Afar Zone 4, Afar Zone 5, Agew Awi, Agnuak, Alaba, Amaro, Argoba, Asosa, Bench M…; Rwanda: Bugesera, Burera, Gakenke, Gasabo, Gatsibo, Gisagara, Karongi, Kayonza, Kicukiro, Kirehe, Muhanga, Musanze, Ngoma, Nyab…; South Sudan: Abiemnhom, Abyei, Akobo, Aweil Centre, Aweil East, Aweil South, Aweil West, Awerial, Ayod, Bor South, Budi, Canal/Pigi,…; Sudan: Abu Hamad, Abu Jibeiha, Abu Karinka, Abu Zabad, Abyei, Adila, Agig, Ailliet, Al Buram, Al Fashaga, Al Gedaref (Wasat) R…; Uganda: Apac, Arua, Bugiri, Bundibugyo, Bushenyi, Hoima, Jinja, Kabale, Kabarole, Kaberamaido, Kamwenge, Kanungu, Kapchorwa, Ki…
Thresholds: rainfall L1 ≤ 50.0 mm, L2 ≤ 100.0 mm, L3 ≤ 150.0 mm, L4 above. Edit in Wagtail admin → Settings → Bulletin Thresholds. Window override: ?start=YYYY-MM-DD.

Member states covered by this bulletin

  • Ethiopia
  • Rwanda
  • South Sudan
  • Sudan
  • Uganda
Produced by ICPAC.