Issue 2026-020
[Draft] WHCA Flood Bulletin
Issued Monday, May 11, 2026 · Window May 11 → May 15, 2026 · 435 admin-3 polygons
← All bulletins This bulletin is system-generated. Hydromet review pending before sign-off.
1. Highlights
Level 3+ combined severity is forecast in: Ethiopia, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda. National Disaster Management Authorities in these countries are advised to monitor closely.
{# Map visibility — strict hazard-only for editors: hydro → discharge map only met → rainfall map only anonymous / admin reviewer / published → all three. Grid collapses to a single full-width column for editors. #}
2. Three-Map Outlook (5-day)

Rainfall

Rainfall map

Discharge

Discharge map

Combined

Combined map
Rainfall Outlook
Across the 376 polygons with rainfall data, the 5-day spatial-mean rainfall averages 22.7 mm (max 120.7 mm). Highest forecast totals are concentrated in: Ethiopia (Jimma, 121 mm), Ethiopia (Yem, 114 mm), Ethiopia (Gurage, 96 mm), Ethiopia (Keffa, 95 mm), Ethiopia (Ilubabor, 84 mm). Several polygons exceed the 100 mm threshold, warranting Level 3 (High) classification.
L3 High Ethiopia: Jimma, Yem
L2 Medium Ethiopia (18) · Rwanda (2) · South Sudan (25) · Sudan (1) · Uganda (4)
L1 Low Ethiopia (57) · Rwanda (28) · South Sudan (54) · Sudan (131) · Uganda (54)
Discharge Outlook
2041 multimodal forecast points fall within the 435 WHCA admin-3 polygons; 91 polygons show at least one point exceeding its p90 percentile threshold. Most affected countries by polygon-count: Sudan (32 polygons), Ethiopia (25 polygons), Uganda (17 polygons), South Sudan (13 polygons), Rwanda (4 polygons).
L4 Extreme Ethiopia: Afar Zone 3, Afder, Arsi, Bale, Borena, Burji, Doolo, Guji, Jarar, Korahe, Liben, Mirab Arsi, Mirab Gojjam, Mirab Hararghe, Misraq Harerge,…; South Sudan: Fangak, Lafon, Magwi, Malakal, Manyo, Mundri West, Pariang, Pibor, Renk, Tonj North, Yei; Sudan: Abu Houjar, Abu Jabra, Algolid, Alsalam, Ed El Fursan, El Dwaeem, El Qeteena, El Salam, Jebrt El Sheekh, Klaimendo, Kylac, Rabak, Sodari, U…; Uganda: Adjumani, Gulu, Kamuli, Katakwi, Kayunga, Kiboga, Kitgum, Kumi, Lake Victoria, Nebbi, Rakai, Sembabule
L3 High Ethiopia: Kemashi, Konso, Mi'irabawi; Rwanda: Kamonyi, Ngororero, Nyarugenge; South Sudan: Melut; Sudan: Aldaba, Damazin, El Matama, Eldamar, Nahr Atbara, Tendalti; Uganda: Iganga, Mbarara
L2 Medium Ethiopia (1) · Rwanda (1) · South Sudan (1) · Sudan (10) · Uganda (3)
L1 Low Ethiopia (39) · Rwanda (8) · South Sudan (46) · Sudan (66) · Uganda (16)
Combined Severity by Country
L4 Extreme Ethiopia: Afar Zone 3, Afder, Arsi, Bale, Borena, Burji, Doolo, Guji, Jarar, Korahe, Liben, Mirab Arsi, Mirab Gojjam, Mirab Harar…; South Sudan: Fangak, Lafon, Magwi, Malakal, Manyo, Mundri West, Pariang, Pibor, Renk, Tonj North, Yei; Sudan: Abu Houjar, Abu Jabra, Algolid, Alsalam, Ed El Fursan, El Dwaeem, El Qeteena, El Salam, Jebrt El Sheekh, Klaimendo, Kyl…; Uganda: Adjumani, Gulu, Kamuli, Katakwi, Kayunga, Kiboga, Kitgum, Kumi, Lake Victoria, Nebbi, Rakai, Sembabule
L3 High Ethiopia: Jimma, Kemashi, Konso, Mi'irabawi, Yem; Rwanda: Kamonyi, Ngororero, Nyarugenge; South Sudan: Melut; Sudan: Aldaba, Damazin, El Matama, Eldamar, Nahr Atbara, Tendalti; Uganda: Iganga, Mbarara
L2 Medium Ethiopia: Agew Awi, Alaba, Dawro, Debub Gondar, Debub Mirab Shewa, Gurage, Hadiya, Horo Guduru, Ilubabor, Keffa, Kelem Wellega, K…; Rwanda: Kirehe, Nyamasheke, Rubavu; South Sudan: Ayod, Baliet, Canal/Pigi, Ezo, Jur River, Longochuk, Luakpiny/Nasir, Maridi, Morobo, Mundri East, Mvolo, Nagero, Nyirol…; Sudan: Abu Hamad, Al Buhyra, Al Butana, Al Gonnob & Al Oleb, Alborgag, Dalgo, Dongola, El Kurumuk, Haiya, Jabiet Al Maadin…; Uganda: Arua, Hoima, Kasese, Lake Albert, Lira, Pallisa
L1 Low Ethiopia: Addis Abeba, Afar Zone 1, Afar Zone 2, Afar Zone 4, Afar Zone 5, Agnuak, Alle, Amaro, Argoba, Asosa, Bahir Dar Special …; Rwanda: Bugesera, Burera, Gakenke, Gasabo, Gatsibo, Gicumbi, Gisagara, Huye, Karongi, Kayonza, Kicukiro, Muhanga, Musanze, Ngom…; South Sudan: Abiemnhom, Abyei, Akobo, Aweil Centre, Aweil East, Aweil North, Aweil South, Aweil West, Awerial, Bor South, Budi, Cuei…; Sudan: Abu Jibeiha, Abu Karinka, Abu Kershola, Abu Zabad, Abyei, Adila, Agig, Ailliet, Al Abbasia, Al Buram, Al Fashaga, Al Ga…; Uganda: Apac, Bugiri, Bundibugyo, Bushenyi, Busia, Jinja, Kabale, Kabarole, Kaberamaido, Kalangala, Kampala, Kamwenge, Kanungu,…
Thresholds: rainfall L1 ≤ 50.0 mm, L2 ≤ 100.0 mm, L3 ≤ 150.0 mm, L4 above. Edit in Wagtail admin → Settings → Bulletin Thresholds. Window override: ?start=YYYY-MM-DD.

Member states covered by this bulletin

  • Ethiopia
  • Rwanda
  • South Sudan
  • Sudan
  • Uganda
Produced by ICPAC.